Bitcoin's Steady Old Supply: No Signs of Panic Selling

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently grappling with the challenge of maintaining the crucial $110,000 support level as price pressures mount in the waning days of the month. The market structure is exhibiting fragility in the aftermath of heightened volatility, prompting several analysts to caution that BTC might revisit lower demand zones before it can solidify a more robust foundation. With liquidity pockets located beneath the current price and persistent selling activity near resistance levels, a short-term decline remains a possibility as traders reassess their positions following the recent shift in Federal Reserve policy.

Nonetheless, not every indicator points towards weakness. A significant number of investors are maintaining an optimistic outlook as macroeconomic conditions appear to be shifting back in favor of risk assets. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis points rate cut and the announcement that quantitative tightening will conclude by December 1st are setting the stage for what some analysts perceive as the initial stages of a new liquidity cycle—historically beneficial for Bitcoin’s long-term growth.

On-chain data further corroborates a calmer market atmosphere. In the past month, the activity related to older coins has remained relatively steady, with long-term holders showing no inclination towards panic selling. This behavior indicates a strong conviction among seasoned market players, even as BTC faces short-term fluctuations. Together, these dynamics depict a market in transition: cautious in the short term yet strategically poised for potential gains.

Insights from on-chain analysis, notably from top analyst Axel Adler, reveal that Bitcoin’s recent spending behavior among long-term holders has remained impressively stable. This stability underscores a strong conviction within the market, even as the price struggles to maintain its position above critical support levels. Adler highlights the Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL)—a metric that evaluates the average age of coins being transacted on-chain. He notes that there were minor spikes to 245 days on October 8 and 209 days on October 21, but these were significantly weaker compared to the intense long-term holder activity observed in the spring and June months.

This differentiation is crucial: during the earlier periods, the movement of older coins signified meaningful distribution events, often preceding corrective phases. In contrast, the recent modest increases indicate a lack of widespread intent among long-term holders to liquidate their positions. The current 30-day ASOL moving average hovers around 111 days, which Adler describes as a structural baseline—a range consistent with healthy consolidation rather than distribution.

In practical terms, this indicates that experienced holders are exercising patience, showing no rush to take profits despite the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty and short-term volatility. Concurrently, incoming liquidity is continuing to absorb supply, as referenced in this week’s Substack commentary. This absorption dynamic is critical; it reflects a market where the availability of Bitcoin is gradually tightening, promoting price stability even as speculative flows remain limited.

Collectively, these on-chain conditions signify a foundational phase rather than a period of exhaustion. As liquidity conditions improve and macro headwinds diminish, this quiet confidence among long-term holders could lay the groundwork for the next significant upward movement—once demand begins to accelerate meaningfully. For now, the market appears calm beneath the surface, a posture historically linked with accumulation phases and future expansion rather than widespread distribution or capitulation.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $110,100, making efforts to stabilize following another pronounced rejection below resistance levels. Traders remain on high alert as they navigate the current market landscape, which is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors and the evolving stance of the Federal Reserve.

As the situation unfolds, it’s essential for traders and investors alike to stay informed on potential shifts in market dynamics. The interplay between liquidity and demand will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming weeks. For those involved in the cryptocurrency space, the ongoing developments present an intriguing landscape filled with both challenges and opportunities.