The Latest Bear Market Indicator: Bitcoin’s IPO Timing

When it comes to identifying the peak of the cryptocurrency market, the timing of crypto IPOs often sparks debate. Are these public offerings the most reliable indicators of market tops, or are they simply a recurring theme that investors cling to during the euphoric peaks of a market cycle?

Examining the data reveals a compelling pattern. Take Coinbase, for example. Its direct listing took place on April 14, 2021, coinciding perfectly with Bitcoin’s record-setting price of nearly $64,000 on the same day.

Fast forward to Stronghold Digital Mining, which priced its initial public offering (IPO) on October 19-20, 2021, occurring around three weeks ahead of Bitcoin’s peak of approximately $68,789 on November 10.

In the current cycle, we see a similar trend with Bullish and Figure. Bullish debuted on August 13, 2025, while Figure’s pricing occurred on September 10, 2025, both just weeks away from Bitcoin’s all-time high of about $126,198 on October 6.

Adding to this narrative, Grayscale filed for its public IPO on November 13, 2025, shortly after Bitcoin had reached its peak, further contributing to the pattern.

The sequence of IPOs serves as a significant reference point for market analysts. Coinbase has become synonymous with peak timing due to its exact date alignment with a major Bitcoin price milestone. Stronghold’s IPO, occurring near the November high after a summer lull, reinforces this connection.

In 2025, the timing of Bullish and Figure’s listings followed a similar trajectory, leading up to Bitcoin’s early October surge. While these occurrences do not definitively establish a rule, they provide valuable anchors for portfolio managers seeking to monitor late-cycle market conditions. The IPO dates are set, revealing insights about business strategies and the quality of the underlying financials.

This cluster of IPOs sheds light on the risk appetite among investors at critical moments. Bullish’s August debut witnessed vigorous trading on its first day, with valuations nearing its upper limits.

Figure priced its shares at $25, coinciding with Bitcoin achieving its cycle peak.

As the market transitioned from excitement over listings to the more subdued atmosphere of filings, Grayscale revealed impressive figures, reporting $318.7 million in revenue and $203.3 million in net income for the first three quarters of 2025, while also acknowledging pressures on fees in their disclosures.

Furthermore, Gemini’s S-1 filing became publicly available in mid-August, preceding Bitcoin’s October high, adding to the growing roster of exchange-related activities typical of late-cycle dynamics.

A straightforward method to track these IPO patterns is to calculate the days between each listing and the cycle peak. The windows for 2021 and 2025 form a recognizable timeframe that appears actionable—approximately 60 days before to 30 days after the all-time high, denoted as T.

For instance, Coinbase’s listing marked T0, while Stronghold’s occurred roughly 22 days before the peak. Bullish and Figure listed near T minus 54 and T minus 26, respectively, and Grayscale’s filing came in after the peak at T plus 38. This rhythm suggests a preference for timing in the funding market, where teams are inclined to pursue valuations during bullish phases, while investors may find that market liquidity can align with selling pressure in secondary markets.

The following table provides a clear outline of these key dates to help calibrate this window:

In conclusion, the relationship between IPOs and Bitcoin’s price peaks offers a fascinating lens through which to view market sentiment and investor behavior. While these signals are not foolproof, they provide a structured approach to analyzing the late stages of crypto market cycles.