Why Bitcoin Experienced Its First Down October in Seven Years

For over a decade, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, often marked by optimistic trading.

Traditionally, this month has produced average gains of around 22.5%, attributed to increased liquidity following summer, strategic year-end portfolio adjustments, and more recently, consistent demand from U.S. investment vehicles.

This established trend led to renewed optimism this year. True to its historical pattern, Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high of over $126,000 in the first week of October, prompting traders to resurrect the popular term “Uptober.”

However, a sudden flash sell-off swiftly wiped out those early gains, and unlike tech stocks and other high-risk assets, Bitcoin did not regain its lost value.

This led to a disappointing close for the month, undermining the meme and reminding the market that catchy phrases do not counterbalance supply.

This October stands out for its striking similarities to 2018.

During that year, October did not experience a collapse but rather a cessation of its rally. When the usual seasonal momentum faded, the subsequent months saw a sharp downturn, with Bitcoin plummeting over 36% in November alone.

The lesson was clear: when a historically strong month fails to propel prices upward, it indicates underlying weakness in the market. This weakness can arise from factors such as oversupply, dwindling demand, or more stringent macroeconomic conditions.

This year reflects a similar sentiment. The calendar didn’t stop functioning; rather, the market entered October feeling somewhat fatigued.

Following a robust first three quarters, traders found themselves heavily invested, liquidity was sporadic, and long-term holders began cashing in on their profits at every sign of market strength.

The challenges faced by Bitcoin’s price this October can largely be explained by on-chain data.

Data from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode revealed that long-term Bitcoin holders have been incrementally selling their coins since mid-July, with realized selling escalating from approximately $1 billion daily to between $2 billion and $3 billion per day by early October.

Glassnode observed:

“When filtering by age cohort, it’s evident that holders with assets aged 6 to 12 months contributed to over 50% of the recent selling pressure—particularly during the late stages of the price peak formation. Around the time Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000, their selling exceeded $648 million per day (7-day simple moving average); more than five times their baseline earlier in 2025.”

This market behavior hints at a broader trend as long-term holders, sensing the peak, began to liquidate their positions, contributing to the downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

In summary, the first red October for Bitcoin in seven years can be attributed to a combination of market exhaustion, profit-taking by long-term holders, and a notable lack of demand to counterbalance the selling pressure. While historical trends had suggested a bullish month, the underlying factors proved too significant to ignore, ultimately leading to a downturn that echoed previous years.

As we move forward, it will be crucial for traders and investors to monitor these indicators closely, as they could provide insights into Bitcoin’s potential recovery or continued struggles in the months to come.